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Short answer
The Lancet, despite being a leading medical journal, has published a preposterous speculative mortality report on Gaza, claiming an unverified death toll of 186,000 in the Gaza war that began on October 7th.
A July 2024 publication arrived at this fictitious estimate by inflating Hamas’s (a demonstrably unreliable source) reported death toll figures by 41% and then quadrupling the result, applying a so-called “conservative” four-to-one indirect-to-direct death ratio based on comparisons to vastly different war conflicts than the one in Gaza.
In addition, this calculation ignores Gaza’s unprecedented levels of humanitarian aid (which is not usually supplied by an army to its enemy and reduces death tolls) and the IDF’s extensive efforts to minimize civilian casualties by evacuating civilian populations in advance.
Furthermore the findings rely completely on unverified data from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry. Studies, such as one by the Henry Jackson Society, indicate that the Ministry significantly overestimates casualties.
To this day, there is still no verifiable proof of the reported death toll—nor has there ever been.
Long answer
The Lancet calls itself a world-leading medical journal, but it’s absolutely baffling how it allowed itself to publish wildly speculative reports about Gaza’s death toll. Instead of relying on solid & verified data, the estimates are built on a shaky pile of disinformation, made up by a single, unreliable source—the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry.
A study by the Henry Jackson Society found that this ministry inflates death counts by including natural deaths and failing to separate civilians from combatants. But instead of questioning these exaggerated numbers, The Lancet’s authors went even further—boosting Hamas’s figures by 41% and then quadrupling the result, applying a so-called “conservative” four-to-one indirect-to-direct death ratio based on comparisons to vastly different war conflicts than the one in Gaza.
In July 2024, The Lancet published publication claiming the real death toll in Gaza was in fact closer to 186,000 than the most recent numbers claimed by Hamas. How did they get to that amount ? By taking Hamas’s reported figures, increasing them by 41%, and then multiplying that result by four.
The journal writers based the casualties on a so-called “conservative” assumption that for every death, there are four indirect deaths— simply because similar ratios have been seen in other wars far different then the one in Gaza. But these comparisons make little sense, considering how much humanitarian aid Gaza has received and the IDF’s efforts to avoid civilian casualties (A practice that by default reduces casualties and is not often used in wars)
Then, in January 2025, another article estimated 64,000 traumatic injury deaths between October 2023 and June 2024. Again, it used the same unreliable source—the Hamas-run Ministry of Health—and applied the same 41% inflation rate, reinforcing the bias even more. (a number even an unreliable source like Hamas did not claim)
Anyone looking at this objectively can see that these reports aren’t based on real data; they’re just number-crunching exercises generated by unreliable sources.
The bottom line? There has never been any solid proof of these inflated, theoretical death tolls—just a lot of dubious mathematical wizardry for the sake of an agenda.
